Ten and Six Week Three

Where did I go wrong? I was 10-6 this week. Surprisingly not 9-7, as I accidently picked the Colts to win, even though I didn’t think they would. Better to be lucky than good I guess. Although this week was a major improvement over last week, I still sucked. Let’s see where I failed.

Obvious:
Jags win on the road vs. Houston. What the hell Houston? Talk about an on-off switch for defense! You are the Cardinals of the AFC. Oh wait. Never mind. Your defense never shows up. It’s your offense that is so light switch like.

Washington loses in Detroit. Alright. I guess we can pick against the Lions for the rest of the season and be safe. The pros feel the same, as they opened up as a 10 point dog in Chicago for week 4.

And Pittsburgh loses to Cincy on the road. You just can’t count on anything in this league anymore I guess. I sure hope the Steelers have this many problems executing against the Chargers.

Close calls:
The Patties win. Yuck. Can someone please play Randy Moss like the Bills did? You know, without blowing the lead in the last couple minutes.

Minnesota defends home against the 49ers. How dare I pick against Favre! At least the Niners covered that ridiculous 7-point spread. I guess we’ll have to wait until later this season to see that Farvearian Chokemeister.

New Orleans beat Buffalo in Orchard Park. When your offense is shit, your defense gets tired. Fire your coach before it’s too late!!

Oh how I long for my week one success now!

Week 3 Picks

I have zero confidence going into the NFL’s third week - and for good reason. Last week it turns out I was 6 and 10, not 7 and 9. That’s more than awful. This week, I’m taking the “safe” approach. There are hardly any shockers on my list so far. Here’s a quick rundown.

Obvious:
Philly over KC at home
Baltimore over the Browns at home (the spread is up to 13 points!)
Houston over the Jags at home.
The Cowgirls over the Panthers at home (total score around 45 for the tie-breaker)
Road wins for Green Bay, the Giants, Washington, and Pittsburgh

Close calls:
The Jets over Tennessee in New Jersey. The Jets have looked great in every game and the Titans look all around rusty.

Atlanta beating The Patties in Pattie-land. Same thing – the Patties look like crap, and Atlanta looks pretty sharp.

Chicago on the road over Seattle. Never trust Chicago. Never trust Cutler. Unless you trusted Seattle the week before and got burnt.

San Diego at home over the Dolphins. Home team. Phins don’t finish and the Chargers don’t either.

Denver in Kevlarland winning at Oakland. Week 2: Russell 7 of 24 109 yards, McFadden 12 for 35 yards 1 TD.

Arizona at home over Indy. Indy’s Dee? Anyone there?

Upsets:
San Fran on the road over Minnesota. How dare I pick against Favre! But a 7 point favorite at home for a team that has beaten Cleveland and Detroit??? I’m sorry; I just don’t buy it.

Buffalo at home over New Orleans. New Orleans has beaten Detroit and Philly so far. Philly, by the way, attempted 51 passes in that game and hasn’t had a rusher over 64 yards yet. Enter Freddy Jackson. (Okay, all heart and no logic here.)

I’m not as nervous this week as I was last week. Maybe that’s because there’s virtually no way I can do worse than I did last week. So either way, I’ll be improving. I look forward to Sunday, and I hope it turns out to be a great week.

Week 2 Sucks

So every single game that I featured in last week’s blog I lost. Almost. Indy managed to pull it out in the end as efficiently as possible. Let me just say that one surprise pick that I didn’t include last week's blog was the Patties losing to the Jets. This will be my reigning theme throughout the season. The Patties are the worst good team I’ve seen in a long time. I can’t see them winning a Super Bowl with their current roster.

Last year the Patties were the #5 offense in the NFL and missed the playoffs. Arizona was #4 and lost the Super Bowl to the #1 defense in the league, Pittsburgh. The year before the phenomenal Pattie offense, easily #1 in the league, lost to the second best NFC defense in yards allowed. In the 2003 season, the Patties won the Super Bowl with a #4 ranked defense over the #5 ranked defense of Carolina. The Patriots repeated the following year with the #1 defense in points per game (14.9!!!). This doesn’t even come close to the top ten NFL defenses ever, but with a great decision maker at quarterback in Tom Brady, the Patties are bound to capitalize on good defense.

The style of offense the Patriots have run since the arrival of Randy Moss is a short pass sustained spread offense. While most teams use the establishment of a running game to set up the rest of their offense, the Patties use the short passing game to set up their long pass and draw runs. That’s not to say they can’t (or don’t) walk up to the line with two tight ends and pound the rock. They just choose not to. And when they score, they do it quickly and put their defense right back on the field.

I don’t see this spread style of offense as sustainable in the NFL. In recent memory, the only team to pull off a Super Bowl with that style offense was the ’99 St. Louis Rams. But they had a natural balance in the backfield in Marshal Faulk. No matter how many graphical statistics they create for him in game, Kevin Faulk doesn’t compare except in name. Seeing how Freddie Taylor ran against Buffalo early in week one’s game, I was a little worried they might have brought balance back, but it appears that the Evil Empire will continue down the path it’s chosen.

Now that Darth and the Emperor have been addressed, let’s look at some terrible results from this week.

Jacksonville over Arizona – What a joke. Okay, it wasn’t an all around joke. I just didn’t expect defensive/special teams points to come from Arizona, and this one got out of hand early. And since this game wasn’t on TV, I’m still asking myself if Arizona (and for that matter, San Fran’s Dee) is for real. Sure, the team scored a lot. But I still just don’t know whether to pick them in upcoming matchups. Either way, I was way off the mark with this one.

Tampa Bay over Buffalo – I was having multiple flashbacks at the end of the first half of this game. Buffalo dominated nearly every aspect and seemed to be handing it away again. Going into the locker room I was ready to burn all of my Buffalo Bill paraphernalia and call it the quits. Seriously. So I ended up emotionally disconnecting myself for the second half, which is a shame, because there was a lot to cheer about. The Bills looked great on offense, defense, and special teams throughout the game (except for before mentioned late first half). They actually repaired some old wounds with their second half showing. Now if they start Freddy Jackson over Marshawn Lynch against the Saints, they’ll have an outside shot at winning. They won’t though. Trust me.

Seattle over San Francisco – Ugh. Seattle looked terrible! Even before Hasslebeck went out. I guess St. Louis is really as bad as they appear. San Fran is another monster all together. It’s going to be tougher and tougher to pick against them after the first two victories. Especially their next game on the road against Minnesota.

Cleveland over Denver – Yuck. Seriously, I never specifically want to see Denver win. I can’t believe their in first place again. They’ll likely beat the Raiders and be 3-0 to start the season. Then OMG we’re going to hear all the Bronco worshipers come out. Thanks a lot Cleveland.

I was 7 and 9 this week. That’s just awful. Fortunately, I wasn’t the only one with problems, as the rest of the crew stumbled quite a bit. Unfortunately, I would have been even if the Chargers could have pulled out a win. What the heck does it take for them to beat a good team in the regular season? Oh well. Tomorrow I’ll try to decipher Week 3.

Lions and Tigers and Bears… Will Lose

Okay, I know that title had to have been used before, but I couldn’t help it. This isn’t the first time, and it won’t be the last time that I’ve picked Detroit, Chicago, and Cincy to all lose in the same weekend. Actually, this isn’t the first time this season! Here are some surprise picks for you though:

Jacksonville over Arizona – okay, okay, I know. Not a surprise because the Jags are favored at home in this one. But seriously, would it be a surprise if I picked the favored Titans to beat the underdog Steelers last Thursday? Of course! So this counts. Jacksonville’s defense looked stout in front of a true man of a quarterback (one that doesn’t need those sissy gloves on both hands) in Peyton Manning. It may be close, but only on the scoreboard. If Arizona looked somewhat decent against the Niners, I might have more difficulty with this one.

Tampa Bay over Buffalo – What?! Maybe I picked this one too soon after the choke-fest that was Monday Night Football. The Bills are favored to win at home. Buffalo looked great during the Patties game. Their offense needed to execute better on third down. Their running attack with Freddy Jackson is awesome to watch! They didn’t turn the ball over on offense. And their defense played an A+ game against the Patties right up until the end. Take the last five sentences; move them back three years; insert J.P. Loser-man (spelling?) and Lynch or McGahee before him and nothing’s changed! Not converting on third downs plus late turnovers plus soft fourth quarter defense equals a losing team. I am not talking about a lost game. I am talking about a mediocrity that brings about years of missing the playoffs. Those 6-10 Charger teams of my youth are remembered well when I watch the Bills.

Seattle over San Francisco – I had some trouble picking this one. Indeed San Fran is favored slightly in this one. I don’t think they should be. They showed a stout defense against Arizona last week, but it remains to be seen if Arizona is the powerhouse everyone makes them out to be. I’ll say it again; they are not that far removed from mediocrity. My problem with Seattle comes simply from not seeing their game against a team (speaking of mediocrity: St. Louis) that is probably still pretty bad. Their stats, especially Hasslebeck’s three TDs, look great. Their running yards appear to have come mostly from one long TD run. But offensive production is offensive production. And a defensive shutout is a defensive shutout.

Dear Buffalo,
Please pitch a shutout on defense and be productive on offense so I can pick you next week.

Your Fan,
Brandon.

Cleveland over Denver – I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people pick Denver at home for this one. Cleveland is not the awful Cleveland of a few years ago though. Probably still mediocre, but so is Kyle Orton. He’s safe, but mediocre. In what will hopefully be a turnover-and-punt-fest, I look for the Browns to stay safely at the top of the turd pile by the end.

Indianapolis over Miami – Um. No surprise here. I chose 26 for a final score tie-breaker because the Miami’s D stood up well against the A-T-L and their offense – well, it’s the Dolphins. Really I just wanted this last paragraph to say happy birthday to my good friend Colts fan Jozi. And while I’m here, my brother too. And Lloyd. Not that he would have read this far. Any other 17th birthdays out there?

My Nearly Unbelievable NFL Week 1

Last week I witnessed huge success in my NFL picks. An undefeated morning and only one loss in the afternoon put me in front of the race in our morale office pool. If Leodis McKelvin hadn’t returned a 4th quarter kickoff in the Bills game with his hands around his throat, I would have locked up the pool going into the tie-breaker Charger game. I was one of two people (we have 14 total) who picked the Bills.

Although they are my favorite team, I did not pick with my heart this time. I knew from their first game last year that the Bills match up well. Given better play calling this year, they had a shot. Well, the Bills just fired their O-Coordinator the week before the game, so they were a lock to win. Alright, I threw a little heart into the decision, but not as much as one may think.

Where I did pick with my heart was when I decided on the final score of the Charger – Raider game. I was, after the Bills-Debacle, in a five way tie at 13-2. All five players had chosen the Chargers to win. I assumed 7 successful Charger drives and 3 successful Raider drives with more touchdowns scored than field goals. I put my tie-breaking total score at 54. I knew that the Chargers had come out flat every single year under Norv Turner. But I just didn’t want to believe that they would do it yet again. If I had just predicted two fewer successful Charger drives and went with around five points per drive I would have been a lot closer to the final score. Oh well – lesson learned.

I want to touch on a couple other picks from last week. I counted on Denver winning against the Bengals. I got a little lucky at the end there, but overall I felt that the Broncos executed well above the level that Cincy did. They just lacked that execution once they got near mid-field. Actually, both teams looked the same in that regard. Either way, I usually don’t pick Cincy in a close one because they seem to lack the character to go out and get a win. It was nice to see the Broncos try to give them one at the end with that soft defense.

My only afternoon loss came from the 49ers beating Arizona. Kurt Warner looked like he switched it off again. That leads me to wonder if he’s going to play this way the entire season. When he is off, I look for a lot of sacks and turnovers. And a whole lot of three-and-outs. Let’s not forget where the Cards were two or three years ago. They’re not that far removed from mediocrity, so I will need to keep a close eye on them for future picks.

Other than those two games, there weren’t very many surprises in my picks. Week one is a tough one to get right, but the seemingly uneven match-ups made for easy picking in my mind. It just so happened that the teams that were better tended to play that way. Week two looks a lot more ominous. More on that later.

St. Paul Island, Alaska

Yesterday I spent my 48th day on St. Paul Island. My TDY trip here in support of the galley staff for the extra contractors on base is scheduled for 96 days, meaning I am halfway through! If the trip has been anything, it’s been long. I’m looking forward to counting down the days instead of counting up. I have also gained an awful lot of respect for those that spend an entire tour here.


St. Paul Island is home of a LORAN station operated by the Coast Guard. In support of the 625’ tower that pumps its 400,000 watt signal out over the bearing sea, there are currently 14 people stationed here permanently. There are also two civilians that work in a full time status at the station. Each member that gets stationed here leaves their family behind for an entire year. They are compensated by getting an extra 2.5 days/month of compensatory leave and a high priority of transfer for their next assignment. These benefits are the only way that this assignment stays, for the most part, in a volunteer-only status. Thank God for volunteers.


My time here started on the evening of July 27th. An overnight in Anchorage and some hours of flying landed me first on St. George Island and then on to St. Paul. Both islands are part of the Pribilof Island chain.

The XPO picked me up from the airport and our first stop was a seal rookery past Zapadni Point on the southern coast of the island. There I caught my first look at the endangered Northern Fur Seal. I was really looking forward to this visit, as the Fur Seal trade is what originally brought the Coast Guard (then the Revenue Cutter Service) to Alaska. I was not disappointed. The seals were fascinating to watch and listen to. They also have a fascinating smell.

The first week I spent time learning the ins-and-outs of my job here. I also started to learn the routine of LORAN station. There are a lot of techniques used by the personnel to pass their time here. One of my favorites takes place on Fridays. The crew is generally granted early liberty after lunch. Darts, billiards, foosball and movies dominate the afternoon. After dinner the real fun starts, as most of the crew participates in a NL Texas Hold’em tournament (for free, of course) on the mess deck. That first Friday, I took down a tournament of 8 players. This game is easy! Since then, it hasn’t come as easy. I must say that winning 3 of 9 tournaments since arriving appears to be more than my fair share though.

On my first Saturday, and many days since, I walked part of the island. It was just a five mile portion of the island. As a clue to the visual wonders this island displays in the summer time, I took 163 digital photos in that five miles. That first Saturday also marked the beginning of a new month, which was great news (even if I had only been here five days so far).

Anticipation is a big part of passing the time in St. Paul. I’ve found myself looking forward to a number of milestones. Each Friday is indeed a milestone; I’ve been looking forward to the next poker game for years. Also, the comings and goings of personnel is usually looked forward to. As bittersweet as it can be, someone leaving the island means I am closer to going home to see my family. I imagine many people here can’t wait for the day I leave as a marker that their year is closer to being done.

Each milestone seems bigger than it did anywhere else too. For example, I’ve never quite anticipated the start of a football season as much as I have this one. Both college football and the NFL are such a big deal here. Most likely it is because each sports fan knows that a Sunday full of football is a Sunday that flies by. Also, I really can’t wait for my birthday to get here. Not only does it bring up the prospect of some really cool stuff in the mail (like a PEZ dispenser jigsaw puzzle or San Diego Chargers watch!), but it will also mean that I only have five weeks left!

What’s left for the remaining 48 days? Well, there are at least seven more poker games. Maybe (likely) I can add to the six books I’ve read so far. (It’s tough and easy to read here. No one interrupts you. But it gets awfully quiet.) I have at least one more puzzle in store. There will be plenty of working out (at an hour-and-a-half/day, I can burn up 6% of my time here). More walks and photos are definitely on the way. Mostly I will be putting my head down and grinding the time away by picking my head up and enjoying my time here as much as I have so far.