'Aint Right Again

If my prognostication record were a batting average I’d be in the Hall of Fame. That’s even in this Athletes Juicing and Media Acting Surprised Era. However, I miss a lot. I’d say that, if you take away every 10 point spread offered each week of the NFL season, I’d be .500 or less. That means I miss more than I hit.

Sometimes I get a feeling. As a poker acquaintance of mine says (quite often) if you’ve got a hunch, bet a bunch. Of course he’s really saying if you’ve got a hunch, call a bunch. That’s not the same as a bet. Nevermind.

I am not a gambler. Okay! Stop laughing! I like poker a lot. I also enjoy participating in football “office” pick contests. But I simply do not gamble. My poker I see as an investment. I purchase books related to the topic and I study them. I pay attention at the table to the players around me and I study them. I record situations in my brain and play them back over and over and over again and I study them. The end result of all of this studying is a consistent upward trend in the amount of money I have won over the long haul.

As far as football picks? I haven’t put my money where my mouth is since the Ravens won the Super Bowl. And I don’t play that stupid fantasy football crap (not even for fun). I just can’t handle it emotionally. I mean, what if Tom Brady were the next best QB in the draft and ended up on my team? I can’t then root for him. It won’t happen. I’d rather draft Jim Harbaugh and ask him nicely to come out of retirement.

So sometimes I get a feeling. Part of the reason I don’t gamble is that I won’t hesitate to run with the feeling I have. There’s a lot that goes into a feeling. In poker I could get the feeling that hunch-bunch is chasing a flush draw. There’s a lot of visual evidence and past experience that feeds that feeling. In any given situation my feeling is a probable truth that needs to be considered.

Sometimes feelings are driven by emotions and desires. If I have four hearts in Hold’em with two cards to come, whether I feel it or not one time in five that fifth heart is coming on the next card. Acting on the feeling that the fifth heart is coming by calling a bunch is always a mistake (even when that heart comes!).

I had a feeling the Colts would win the Super Bowl. I also had a feeling the score wouldn’t begin to approach the over/under of 56.5. One feeling had a lot more evidence feeding it. The other had mixed evidence and mixed emotions and desires feeding it. Can you guess which?

Congratulations Saints. I didn’t expect that your superstars would outlast the superstars of the Colts. I am happy for you and your fans (especially the three or four real fans that I know). I’m also happy for your 30,000,000 fans that you started picking up last year. Where were they ten years ago?