The total point spread in favor of the home teams this week is 81 to 3.5. The only road team favored is the Texans in Buffalo. Ironically I think it is the best situation for an upset. The Texans haven’t run the ball worth a damn this year. Their 79.1 yards per game on the ground is 30th in the league. They will be facing the 10th best pass defense in the league, and one that doesn’t like to give up points (7th in the AFC). If the Bills can manage their third downs, and if they happen to stop the mediocre Texan running game they have an excellent shot of winning at home.
The only other upset I picked this week was the Giants over the Eagles in Philly. They’re not even the favorite anymore after a few days of people taking the points and the Giants. The Eagles are a hit and miss team. The Giants aren’t. Well, the Giants have been nothing but miss for two weeks, but they’re better than they showed against the Cardinals. They will likely handle Philly with ease.
Another close call for me was the favored Packers at home vs. the Vikings. Green Bay has been nothing but great all year. They had two close losses (including their last loss versus the Vikings) to first place teams. They have also put a hurting on every bad team they’ve played. It’s amazing that I’m going to say this, but the Packers may be the most underrated team in the NFL. ESPN has them as the lowest ranked two loss team. We’ll see Sunday if that holds up.
Monday Night Football pits the 10 point home favorite Almighty Saints versus the Atlanta Falcons. Easy pick. Saints the rest of the way. And if I had any doubts, last week’s second half erased them.
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