My Brother is Missing

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Just In Time

I’m on Attu Island in Alaska as I write this. How insane is that? I’m 1,100 miles from mainland Alaska and I can still play poker and blog on the Internet. It is, admittedly, rather choppy Internet . (It's no worse than Maine in similar weather.)

The weather is awful!!!!! This place routinely sees 50-80 mph winds this time of year. At one point their records showed over 170 mph within the last year. I fall asleep each night to the sound of a freight train outside my window. I have not stepped a single foot outside since walking over from the runway last Wednesday. It’s not that it is that incredibly awful, it’s just so very intimidating. I keep waiting for an Imperial Walker to walk around the corner when I look out of the window. Hell, the windows! Half the time they’re plastered with snow from the drifts!

And yet I’m terribly pleased to be on this trip. It’s only a two week stay on the island. Well, IF the C-130 can land, it’s only two weeks. LORAN stations are the first step in the process of cutting the Coast Guard budget. Since I’ve been here they’ve already shut down their major signal. By next year this LORAN station and many (all?) of the other LORAN stations will be shut down permanently. Attu Island will return to Population Zero (as it probably should be considering how inhospitable it is). I’m glad I was given the opportunity to make it out here, even if the only pics I get are on my way back to the C-130 next week. :D

'Aint Right Again

If my prognostication record were a batting average I’d be in the Hall of Fame. That’s even in this Athletes Juicing and Media Acting Surprised Era. However, I miss a lot. I’d say that, if you take away every 10 point spread offered each week of the NFL season, I’d be .500 or less. That means I miss more than I hit.

Sometimes I get a feeling. As a poker acquaintance of mine says (quite often) if you’ve got a hunch, bet a bunch. Of course he’s really saying if you’ve got a hunch, call a bunch. That’s not the same as a bet. Nevermind.

I am not a gambler. Okay! Stop laughing! I like poker a lot. I also enjoy participating in football “office” pick contests. But I simply do not gamble. My poker I see as an investment. I purchase books related to the topic and I study them. I pay attention at the table to the players around me and I study them. I record situations in my brain and play them back over and over and over again and I study them. The end result of all of this studying is a consistent upward trend in the amount of money I have won over the long haul.

As far as football picks? I haven’t put my money where my mouth is since the Ravens won the Super Bowl. And I don’t play that stupid fantasy football crap (not even for fun). I just can’t handle it emotionally. I mean, what if Tom Brady were the next best QB in the draft and ended up on my team? I can’t then root for him. It won’t happen. I’d rather draft Jim Harbaugh and ask him nicely to come out of retirement.

So sometimes I get a feeling. Part of the reason I don’t gamble is that I won’t hesitate to run with the feeling I have. There’s a lot that goes into a feeling. In poker I could get the feeling that hunch-bunch is chasing a flush draw. There’s a lot of visual evidence and past experience that feeds that feeling. In any given situation my feeling is a probable truth that needs to be considered.

Sometimes feelings are driven by emotions and desires. If I have four hearts in Hold’em with two cards to come, whether I feel it or not one time in five that fifth heart is coming on the next card. Acting on the feeling that the fifth heart is coming by calling a bunch is always a mistake (even when that heart comes!).

I had a feeling the Colts would win the Super Bowl. I also had a feeling the score wouldn’t begin to approach the over/under of 56.5. One feeling had a lot more evidence feeding it. The other had mixed evidence and mixed emotions and desires feeding it. Can you guess which?

Congratulations Saints. I didn’t expect that your superstars would outlast the superstars of the Colts. I am happy for you and your fans (especially the three or four real fans that I know). I’m also happy for your 30,000,000 fans that you started picking up last year. Where were they ten years ago?

Welcome To Kodiak

It’s been 12 years and some months since I moved out of the last “Squad Bay” I ever lived in. I guess it’s not terribly fair to call this a squad bay. It’s more like a very privacy-be-damned barracks room for three with minimal furnishings and amenities. I have a rack, a locker, and a desk. There is one couch by the door, but it looks old and dank so I haven’t risked it yet. Attached to the space is a head with two of everything.

I’m sharing the space with a just-graduated non-rate on his way to the Munro, Kodiak’s 378’, and an SNET(?) en route to his PCS duty station in Attu. I should know him rather well after two days here and two weeks there.

There are two doors leading into the squad bay. The one to the left of my rack (which is in the middle of the room) leads to a hallway and stairs that get me to the main hallway. I have no idea where the door on the right goes. However, this morning someone waltzed in through said door to talk to the new guy to my right. When they left together, they went out through the right door (door on right?) and magically appeared in the dining facility while I was eating breakfast. My guess is you can get out that way.

I am so glad that I spent three months in St. Paul and not in this room. Attu should be a cake walk.

You've Been Warned

The Indianapolis Colts, for years one of the premier passing offenses in the NFL, is set to take on the New Orleans Saints, this year’s #1 offense in the Super Bowl on Sunday. Without throwing out a prediction…. (actually I can’t help it, Colts 18 – Saints 15) I want to remind all gamblers that in the last ten years, only Super Bowls XXXVII and XXXVIII went over this year’s 56-1/2 point over/under. One of those games had Dexter Jackson named Super Bowl MVP, as a Free Safety!!!! Never expect a high scoring Super Bowl. Unless Trent Dilfer is your Quarterback, you’re almost guaranteed to score less than 34. ;-)

I'm Perfect in Week 10... So Far

How great was it to see Cutleritis strike in San Francisco on Thursday? I love how sports brings out such passion in me that I root for a team's demise just because they have a specific player on their team! I picked the 9ers, so Thursday's result was like winning twice!

I've got three upsets on the board for tomorrow. I picked Carolina to win at home versus Atlanta, a two point favorite. I also picked KC to go into Kevlar-land and take out the Raiders. Oakland is also a two point favorite. I snagged the Packers to rebound well against the Cowboys in Green Bay. The Cowboys are, not surprisingly, favored by two points. I'm starting to think that a two point favorite signifies the two shoulders of the line-maker shrugging in indifference and indecision.

I came oh-so close to picking Washington at home over Denver (-4.5). I still think that might happen given the tough Monday Night game and the short week of prep. But there's just no way I can pick the Redskins to win. Ever.

Um, let's see. What else? Saints will win. Chargers will win.

Football?

I've been mildly distracted this week. I rushed my picks, not even glancing at the spreads offered in each game. The Saints will win. The Chargers will too. What's got my attention? I started back at work and had a blast relearning my job after a three month hiatus. Also, 6,494 players in the WSOP Main Event have been shaved down to the November Nine. The Final Table is starting as I type this. There are 7 "professional" poker players out of the nine left. Sure, it's all luck and no skill. (lol).

If you have the ESPN coverage DVR'd, don't read this: Phil Ivey, the greatest player in the world, is at this year's final table. I can't wait to see how he does with a mildly short stack. (He's got about 15 trips around the table left at the current blind level). For hand-by-hand coverage, check out this site. I haven't been this excited about anything poker in a very long time; that is saying a lot!

The Heavily Favored Home Teams Have It

The total point spread in favor of the home teams this week is 81 to 3.5. The only road team favored is the Texans in Buffalo. Ironically I think it is the best situation for an upset. The Texans haven’t run the ball worth a damn this year. Their 79.1 yards per game on the ground is 30th in the league. They will be facing the 10th best pass defense in the league, and one that doesn’t like to give up points (7th in the AFC). If the Bills can manage their third downs, and if they happen to stop the mediocre Texan running game they have an excellent shot of winning at home.

The only other upset I picked this week was the Giants over the Eagles in Philly. They’re not even the favorite anymore after a few days of people taking the points and the Giants. The Eagles are a hit and miss team. The Giants aren’t. Well, the Giants have been nothing but miss for two weeks, but they’re better than they showed against the Cardinals. They will likely handle Philly with ease.

Another close call for me was the favored Packers at home vs. the Vikings. Green Bay has been nothing but great all year. They had two close losses (including their last loss versus the Vikings) to first place teams. They have also put a hurting on every bad team they’ve played. It’s amazing that I’m going to say this, but the Packers may be the most underrated team in the NFL. ESPN has them as the lowest ranked two loss team. We’ll see Sunday if that holds up.

Monday Night Football pits the 10 point home favorite Almighty Saints versus the Atlanta Falcons. Easy pick. Saints the rest of the way. And if I had any doubts, last week’s second half erased them.

Televised Bills Games are Bad for My Heart

The Bills have won again! It’s amazing! I can’t figure out why a team like Carolina would be so pass-happy early against the worst run defense in the entire NFL. It was nice to see though. I’m excited to see where the Bills go from here. (Did I just give praise to the Bills by not calling them Jauron’s Team and follow it up with an “excited” comment in the same paragraph??) Thank goodness for Carolina’s 19-yard line average starting field position.

The most upsetting game for me was the Cowboys v. Falcons. Once again I was close enough in the pool that a win by the Falcons would have had me tied going into the Monday night game. Not only was that upsetting, but I hate to see the Cowboys win anytime they’re not playing the Raiders or the Patties.

I didn’t get to watch the MNF game, as I was on my way back home to Sitka. It was unimpressive seeing the score. If the Eagles can lose to the Raiders and seemingly barely beat the Redskins, I don’t expect them to do well against better opponents. Also unimpressive this week: the Giants. Not that I watched the game. Collinsworth prevented me from doing so. I expect the Giants to easily handle a team so affected by a good pass rush. Perhaps their game against the Raiders caused them two weeks’ worth of hangover?

For the first time this season both of my favorite teams won in the same week! I went 10-3 this week, which is excellent (still not enough to win though). Overall that brings me to 66-37 (.641) heading into week 8. Not too shabby.

It is finally time for me to fly back home to my family. After 91 days away, I fly to Anchorage today and on to Sitka tomorrow. My trip here was better than expected. The family and I coped well, and we’re all looking forward to a couple of months of “down” time over the holiday season. We had a great supporting cast throughout. I want to say thank you so much to all of the friends and family that helped out with timely care-packages, phone calls, emails, and blog posts to keep our minds off the unfortunate parts of such a trip.

The crew here was great as well. Three months is a long time to spend every waking moment with people you work with. Each person’s year-long tour here is a testament to their mental and emotional toughness, and their willingness to look out for each other. I will miss each of them, and I look forward to seeing them again this winter if I am back up here for the opilio season.

Week 7 Picks

Last week I was burnt by four favored teams losing at home and one squeaker of an upset pick gone wrong. My only true surprising loss was the Eagles losing to the Raiders. It was surprising, but not terribly harmful, as only one person in our pool picked the Raiders and he is – um, to be polite he is “not competitive”. 8-6 for the week was enough to drop me to a .622 winning percentage. (That still doesn’t make any sense to me – shouldn’t it be 62.2%???)

This week I am following the same unsuccessful formula because that’s what I do. My one upset this week will be the 4-1 Falcons over the 3.5 point favorite Cowboys (3-2) in Dallas. The Cowboys fail to impress me. They struggled in their last game against the Chiefs (who appear to be making quite a few teams struggle this year). Their offense is extremely productive in yardage, but not so much in points. Enter the A-T-L’s defense that appears to give up plenty of yards, but not the points. Atlanta’s schedule has been tough this year. Each of their wins has been impressive. Their wins were Miami, Carolina, Chicago and @ San Francisco (in extreme-stomping fashion). Their one loss came on the road @ The Patties.

The Patties have the biggest point spread (-15) this week, and it’s no surprise after their 59-0 whooping of the Tennessee Titans. They are facing the Tampa Bay Bucs, the worst team in the NFL. The Bucs retain this title, as they have the easier schedule of all the winless teams thus far. Their schedule is actually pretty tough for the whole year, but they failed to pull one out against the Redskins, and they allowed 33 points to the anemic Jauron’s Team. Could we have both the Rams and the Bucs go winless this year? Wouldn’t that be something!

The closest spread this week is the Bears @ the Bengals (-1.5). Giving a road team one-and-a-half points is like having the odds-makers throw their hands up. It doesn’t do much for my philosophy of picking the favorite either. I’m just going with an old time formula: never count on Jay Cutler to win a close one. Unless it’s against the Chargers and you have an official with a quick whistle. I picked the Bengals. Oh, and for those of you who don’t pay attention like me, the Bengals happen to be in first place, and are undefeated in their division after playing each team.

I’d say I’m excited about Week 7 in the NFL, but I fly home the next day. I get to watch Week 8 in the comfort of home with my kids rolling their eyes when I shout at the TV and make fun of Dan Dierdorf. I just can’t wait for Week 7 to be over.

Jauronimo!

For the third time in six weeks I was (technically) tied for the football pool lead going into Monday’s game. A Charger victory with a total score around 44 points would have given me the win. Enter not one, but two Brandon Marshall [oops! Not Brandon Marshall, but that other receiver from Denver that I hate!] returns for TDs and I’m toast. So are the Chargers. Don’t look for this non-Shanahan, non-Cutler team to roll over like they did last year.

The Charger’s O looked like they had that LT-potential again. We need more short passing plays to him to set up the downfield pass and his running game. No one is buying Sproles on first and ten. He’s a great, versatile back, but it was good to see them use him more sparingly then a standard half-back.

My record was 8-6 this week. It was my worst since week 2, but at least I picked more right than wrong. A couple things burnt me bad. The Ravens missed a field goal as time expired to give the Vikings a win (someone should look at that Farve kid, he looks pretty good and might be a decent quarterback in the NFL someday). Also, the Bengals didn’t show up (again) at home against the Texans. The Texans and the Cardinals appear to be the biggest on/off teams in the NFL right now. I just don’t know what to do when I have to pick their games. I usually just close my eyes and take the favorite.

How about those Almighty Saints? This was the game I thought the least about picking, and it was never in doubt. The Almighty Saints have a points for/against spread of +99. That’s more than 20 points better than The Patties (+72), even after their 59-0 win this weekend. After their matchup with the Dolphins on Sunday, three of their next four will be their first divisional games. I look forward to seeing how they’ll do.

The other side of that spectrum is the St. Louis Rams. At -115, they are the worst. They’ve averaged nine points per game. For those of you thinking that the Detroit game in week eight will break the Oh-fer season they’re having, stand by. Detroit matches up well against the Rams, and they have a bye this week. I won’t be surprised to see Detroit as the favorite to open at home next week. Looking at their other games, the Rams may never win again.

As far as Jauron’s Team’s victory this weekend… I’m just going to throw this out there. If we could Scooby-Doo ending that Leodis McKelvin fumble in Week 1, the Buffalo Bills would be in a three way tie at the top of the AFC East at 3-3. They have one of the best running games in the AFC, and one of the best pass defenses. Of course, if you have the worst run-defense in the league, even the Browns only need two receptions to beat your sorry-ass. Since you’ll be playing from behind, your running game is a non-factor, so you might as well bench Lynch and Jackson. Your only chance is for your receivers to catch those perfectly placed third down passes early in the game to sustain drives. Thanks for nothing Terrell.

Jauron Sucks.

The title pretty much covers how I feel about football this season. So I don’t really have much to write about. His team will lose to the Jets this week. The Browns only completed 2 passes that entire game. That's just sick. How do you lose to that?!?

I went 9-5 for week 5, bringing me to 48-28 overall. I was the only one to pick the Broncs over the Patties here, which nearly won me the pool (I was tied until the Phins pulled off the upset in an excellent MNF game).

The Almighty Saints are favored at home versus the Giants this week. Both teams are undefeated. It’s been awhile since I was this interested in an NFC match up. Of course, I am through being burnt by Saint victories; I will pick them to win this time around.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Sabres have opened up the NHL season by acquiring 7 of 8 possible points in the standings. Sure would be nice to see one of those games on television. Sigh.

Jauron's Team and the Infinite Sadness

It is blowout weekend in the NFL. Week 5 showcases such matchups as the Steelers v. Lions, Giants v. Redskins, Vikings v. Rams, and Jaguars v. Seahawks. There are 8 out of 14 games this week that had a 6 point favorite to open on Tuesday. There are other games that are close in the point spread that shouldn’t be. The Jets are a 2 point favorite on the road against Miami. They lost ugly against the Almighty Saints last week, so the odds-makers are giving Miami (who beat Jauron’s team bad last week) an extra boost. Also the Panthers are only 3 1/2 point favorite at home against a very bad Redskin team.

All the picks are pretty straight forward. The only line that surprises me is the 6 point dog Browns on the road versus Jauron’s team. I still picked Jauron’s team, but if I had to lay the points, I’d go with the Browns. Thank God I (hopefully) won’t have to watch this one on TV. Jauron needs to be fired. His career record of 58 and 79 is horrific. If you take away the Bears’ one winning season under him he is 45-76. That’s a winning percentage of .372. (Incidentally that’s one of those stats I’ve never understood. Wouldn’t his winning percentage be 37.2? Digression….) I pick football games better than he wins them! That’s for sure! I’m now 39-23 on the year, or .629% (Huh?! See!?) Expect Jauron’s team to have a very tough day at home versus the Browns.

This is such a lopsided weekend that I only picked one underdog. Inevitably I picked the wrong one (Broncos over The Patties). There will, no doubt be other upsets, while The Patties will likely cruise to victory. (Although, I wonder… if God favors the teams I hate as much as it seems, who wins when The Patties and the Broncos play?) All I know for sure this week is that the Almighty Saints won’t lose. Therefore, I refuse to pick against them. Actually, I may never pick against them again.

In the meantime, I’m going back to my reading, and my online poker playing, and my trying to find out the meaning of life… and how Dick Jauron still has a job.

A Perfect Morning - Ruined.

Well, I knew I wasn’t going to have a perfect week for picks. I took the touchdown underdog Jets and the near touchdown underdog Chargers in the afternoon/evening games. Seriously I don’t know what it was thinking. Especially picking against the Saints. Drew Brees is the only football jersey this side of Flutie’s that I have ever owned on purpose. He’s an excellent quarterback on a good team and I shouldn’t even have begun to pick against him, even before hearing it from the “horse’s mouth” Saint’s fan how non-genius and anti-NFC my Jets pick really was. Okay, she didn’t really put it that way, but upon further review, that’s what my pick was. I have an extreme bias toward AFC teams in close call situations.

But there were two games that really surprised me, and were the only two games I lost in the morning. The Patties got it done against the Ravens. Why does this continue to surprise me when no one else in the world is surprised by it? Simple. My heart is stronger than my brain. Even though the Patties, good or not, keep pulling out these games that they should, in all probability lose, I simply cannot give them credit for having that sort of intestinal fortitude because I hate them so. It would the same thing that would make me pick the Raiders if the had won five straight games. As if. (Al Davis I hope you live forever!!)

And the Titans. Oh the Titans. Only you can figure a way to have Vince Young get a starting job in the NFL. Thank you for showing me how another team can be as mediocre as the Bills. Except, you know, you guys can make it to the playoffs. Has Jauron been fired yet? Nine and Five this week. Awful.

An Accidental Look into My Life in St. Paul

I am ten weeks into a temporary duty trip to LORAN Station St. Paul, Alaska. In this booming metropolis I haven’t had any trouble finding things to do. I’ve kept myself busy with puzzles, books, video games, online poker, and television. I’ve taken loads of pictures and been to many parts of this small island. I’ve even designated myself the driver of the bar crowd a time or two. Recently a good friend of mine sent me a 500 piece PEZ candy puzzle. (I don’t know, she collects PEZ dispensers and likes to torture her friends I guess.) I took a picture of the completed puzzle yesterday and, looking at the photo, I realized how comfortable I’ve grown in this little room of mine over the last 70 days.

In the photo there’s a lovely painting behind the puzzle. It was painted by my daughter Audrey on an 8x8 cotton canvas. It’s of a lovely green house with red tulip-looking-things in the front yard. There’s a bright blue, sunny sky over head, but it looks like there is a dark storm on the horizon. It’s an original. I have many original artworks in the room. One of my other favorites (hanging right above this piece, and also from Audrey) is a coloring with a note that reads “Dear Dad dog that beagle Dachshund. I Miis You”.

To the left in the photo is my snack shelf. I’ve got miniature Heath candy bars (my most-favoritest), some goldfish (on which I’m practicing the art of delayed gratification), chocolates, and a box of fabulous homemade cookies (with bits of Heath in there of course) made by my wife and children. There’s also a shoebox there with some Doritos in it.

Below the snack shelf I have The History of Pirates, a coffee table book my wife got me for my birthday. The camera usually sits on top of it. I’ve used the camera a ton, and hopefully I get around to posting more of the photos to this blog when I get near a decent Internet connection.

To the left of the puzzle box is my desk lamp. On its pedestal are Billy’s Poker Glasses and my card protector. Once he bought these glasses, my uncle Billy wore them every time he played poker. The first time I ever saw them was when he and my dad picked me up from the Vegas airport in 2008. I was in town to watch the two of them compete in the $1,500 buy-in event #2 of the World Series of Poker. Billy was starting in the second field on day 1B of the tournament, and that’s when I learned how important the sunglasses were to him.

Las Vegas has some of the best food for your money that you can find. They definitely have their trap spots where they fleece their customers with $8 drinks and $30 entrees. However, they make enough money from suckers who gamble that they can spread a buffet or a specialty restaurant and a poker player (especially the non-sucker type) can get a great deal and be stuffed by a t-bone at 8am.

The three of us suckers –ER I mean poker players enjoyed just such a meal at the Rio on Billy’s day one. Actually it was our routine for the entire time we were in town. We all stayed in the same room that trip and, after my dad’s woman-like getting ready rituals, we’d eat together. Now this was more of a pact between us rather than just a meal by necessity. You see, a poker player in Vegas might as well not sleep if he gets up early to have breakfast. It’s tough to be functional at an early hour when you’ve rousted yourself up after a cash game until 5am. But we did it each and every morning because above all, we were there to spend time together.

After our meal we went to join the women-folk at their breakfast. My grandma, mom, and sister were all in town as well. They weren’t on the same schedule as us and, let’s be honest, weren’t in the biggest hurry to go watch Billy play for 9 hours on end. Hence the separate breakfasts.

As the dawn of Billy’s poker day closed in we excused ourselves from the table. Billy, sitting next to me, reaches down toward the bench and suddenly jerks his hand and head up like there was a rattlesnake sitting there. Wide-eyed and open-mouthed he looks at my dad. “I lost my poker glasses!” Pure panic was in his voice as he was moments (and a freaking half-mile walk) away from his shot at glory. His dream that was playing in a World Series of Poker event was upon us, and he was a solider without his weapon!

I consider myself a lucky man. Along with the other things that God has blessed me with I’ve done some things that not many other people have ever been able to do. Heck, I’m writing this on St. Paul Island, Alaska. How many people have been here? I’ve also played poker against my uncle when he wasn’t wearing his poker glasses. He whopped me something good, and I’ll never forget that whopping. I knew he didn’t need those glasses. But I also know he needed those glasses. I can safely say that my dad and I, and a select few customers of the Rio that day, are some of the lucky few to ever see my uncle sprint like he was running from a tornado.

I wear the sunglasses nearly every time I play live now. They don’t really fit me great, so I just throw them on my head or my ball cap. I don’t really enjoy playing with sunglasses on anyway. The social aspect of poker is what I enjoy the most, and I hate put barriers in front of that. I also still use the card protector he gave me on that trip. These two items make me smile as I remember that shocked look on my uncle’s face that day.

Fire Jauron!

Sticking with my theme from last week, I am not picking very many underdogs this week. I expect the Dolphins to beat the 2-point favorite Bills in Miami. The Dolphins can stop the run, and they’ll wear down the Bills defense by the end of the game. My only hope as a Bills fan is that they learn to open up their passing game from standard, one and two back personnel packages. Then maybe they can get their TE involved and open up down the field on the Phins. Otherwise it’s hopeless. Deep down I want them to lose a close one and fire Dick Jauron and his career 58-79 record.

I’m also picking the 2-point dog Ravens over the Patties in Pattieland. The Ravens are a superb team, and the Patties still aren’t firing on all cylinders. As long as the Ravens can shut down Moss, they should handle the Patties with no issues.

I’m picking the Chargers over the Steelers (-6 1/2) because, damn it, it’s time for the Chargers to win a key match-up within the first four weeks of the regular season.

Finally, I’m picking the Jets in New Orleans over the Saints (-7). The undefeated Jets are a touchdown dog over a team that has destroyed the “mighty” defenses of Detroit, Philly, and Buffalo. The Jets can play defense. The Jets can sustain drives. New Orleans is in trouble and no one knows it.

I can’t wait for Sunday, as it’s the first Sunday of the month of October, and one weekend closer to me shipping for home!

Ten and Six Week Three

Where did I go wrong? I was 10-6 this week. Surprisingly not 9-7, as I accidently picked the Colts to win, even though I didn’t think they would. Better to be lucky than good I guess. Although this week was a major improvement over last week, I still sucked. Let’s see where I failed.

Obvious:
Jags win on the road vs. Houston. What the hell Houston? Talk about an on-off switch for defense! You are the Cardinals of the AFC. Oh wait. Never mind. Your defense never shows up. It’s your offense that is so light switch like.

Washington loses in Detroit. Alright. I guess we can pick against the Lions for the rest of the season and be safe. The pros feel the same, as they opened up as a 10 point dog in Chicago for week 4.

And Pittsburgh loses to Cincy on the road. You just can’t count on anything in this league anymore I guess. I sure hope the Steelers have this many problems executing against the Chargers.

Close calls:
The Patties win. Yuck. Can someone please play Randy Moss like the Bills did? You know, without blowing the lead in the last couple minutes.

Minnesota defends home against the 49ers. How dare I pick against Favre! At least the Niners covered that ridiculous 7-point spread. I guess we’ll have to wait until later this season to see that Farvearian Chokemeister.

New Orleans beat Buffalo in Orchard Park. When your offense is shit, your defense gets tired. Fire your coach before it’s too late!!

Oh how I long for my week one success now!

Week 3 Picks

I have zero confidence going into the NFL’s third week - and for good reason. Last week it turns out I was 6 and 10, not 7 and 9. That’s more than awful. This week, I’m taking the “safe” approach. There are hardly any shockers on my list so far. Here’s a quick rundown.

Obvious:
Philly over KC at home
Baltimore over the Browns at home (the spread is up to 13 points!)
Houston over the Jags at home.
The Cowgirls over the Panthers at home (total score around 45 for the tie-breaker)
Road wins for Green Bay, the Giants, Washington, and Pittsburgh

Close calls:
The Jets over Tennessee in New Jersey. The Jets have looked great in every game and the Titans look all around rusty.

Atlanta beating The Patties in Pattie-land. Same thing – the Patties look like crap, and Atlanta looks pretty sharp.

Chicago on the road over Seattle. Never trust Chicago. Never trust Cutler. Unless you trusted Seattle the week before and got burnt.

San Diego at home over the Dolphins. Home team. Phins don’t finish and the Chargers don’t either.

Denver in Kevlarland winning at Oakland. Week 2: Russell 7 of 24 109 yards, McFadden 12 for 35 yards 1 TD.

Arizona at home over Indy. Indy’s Dee? Anyone there?

Upsets:
San Fran on the road over Minnesota. How dare I pick against Favre! But a 7 point favorite at home for a team that has beaten Cleveland and Detroit??? I’m sorry; I just don’t buy it.

Buffalo at home over New Orleans. New Orleans has beaten Detroit and Philly so far. Philly, by the way, attempted 51 passes in that game and hasn’t had a rusher over 64 yards yet. Enter Freddy Jackson. (Okay, all heart and no logic here.)

I’m not as nervous this week as I was last week. Maybe that’s because there’s virtually no way I can do worse than I did last week. So either way, I’ll be improving. I look forward to Sunday, and I hope it turns out to be a great week.

Week 2 Sucks

So every single game that I featured in last week’s blog I lost. Almost. Indy managed to pull it out in the end as efficiently as possible. Let me just say that one surprise pick that I didn’t include last week's blog was the Patties losing to the Jets. This will be my reigning theme throughout the season. The Patties are the worst good team I’ve seen in a long time. I can’t see them winning a Super Bowl with their current roster.

Last year the Patties were the #5 offense in the NFL and missed the playoffs. Arizona was #4 and lost the Super Bowl to the #1 defense in the league, Pittsburgh. The year before the phenomenal Pattie offense, easily #1 in the league, lost to the second best NFC defense in yards allowed. In the 2003 season, the Patties won the Super Bowl with a #4 ranked defense over the #5 ranked defense of Carolina. The Patriots repeated the following year with the #1 defense in points per game (14.9!!!). This doesn’t even come close to the top ten NFL defenses ever, but with a great decision maker at quarterback in Tom Brady, the Patties are bound to capitalize on good defense.

The style of offense the Patriots have run since the arrival of Randy Moss is a short pass sustained spread offense. While most teams use the establishment of a running game to set up the rest of their offense, the Patties use the short passing game to set up their long pass and draw runs. That’s not to say they can’t (or don’t) walk up to the line with two tight ends and pound the rock. They just choose not to. And when they score, they do it quickly and put their defense right back on the field.

I don’t see this spread style of offense as sustainable in the NFL. In recent memory, the only team to pull off a Super Bowl with that style offense was the ’99 St. Louis Rams. But they had a natural balance in the backfield in Marshal Faulk. No matter how many graphical statistics they create for him in game, Kevin Faulk doesn’t compare except in name. Seeing how Freddie Taylor ran against Buffalo early in week one’s game, I was a little worried they might have brought balance back, but it appears that the Evil Empire will continue down the path it’s chosen.

Now that Darth and the Emperor have been addressed, let’s look at some terrible results from this week.

Jacksonville over Arizona – What a joke. Okay, it wasn’t an all around joke. I just didn’t expect defensive/special teams points to come from Arizona, and this one got out of hand early. And since this game wasn’t on TV, I’m still asking myself if Arizona (and for that matter, San Fran’s Dee) is for real. Sure, the team scored a lot. But I still just don’t know whether to pick them in upcoming matchups. Either way, I was way off the mark with this one.

Tampa Bay over Buffalo – I was having multiple flashbacks at the end of the first half of this game. Buffalo dominated nearly every aspect and seemed to be handing it away again. Going into the locker room I was ready to burn all of my Buffalo Bill paraphernalia and call it the quits. Seriously. So I ended up emotionally disconnecting myself for the second half, which is a shame, because there was a lot to cheer about. The Bills looked great on offense, defense, and special teams throughout the game (except for before mentioned late first half). They actually repaired some old wounds with their second half showing. Now if they start Freddy Jackson over Marshawn Lynch against the Saints, they’ll have an outside shot at winning. They won’t though. Trust me.

Seattle over San Francisco – Ugh. Seattle looked terrible! Even before Hasslebeck went out. I guess St. Louis is really as bad as they appear. San Fran is another monster all together. It’s going to be tougher and tougher to pick against them after the first two victories. Especially their next game on the road against Minnesota.

Cleveland over Denver – Yuck. Seriously, I never specifically want to see Denver win. I can’t believe their in first place again. They’ll likely beat the Raiders and be 3-0 to start the season. Then OMG we’re going to hear all the Bronco worshipers come out. Thanks a lot Cleveland.

I was 7 and 9 this week. That’s just awful. Fortunately, I wasn’t the only one with problems, as the rest of the crew stumbled quite a bit. Unfortunately, I would have been even if the Chargers could have pulled out a win. What the heck does it take for them to beat a good team in the regular season? Oh well. Tomorrow I’ll try to decipher Week 3.